Ask an Economist: Does Government Spending Stimulate the Economy? 1 Dupor, Bill; and Guerrero, Rodrigo. At this point in his first and only term, Jimmy Carter had enjoyed a gain of about 10.1 million jobs. My general finding is that the government was able to create jobs but at a fairly expensive cost. The overall takeaway from my research is that government spending does not seem to be a very cost-effective way to stimulate the economy and create jobs. You don't have to go back far to find three years of better job growth than has been achieved under President Donald Trump. A simple way to grow America’s economy and create jobs. For example, in one study I worked on, I found that creating a job lasting one year cost the government about $100,000, whereas the median compensation for a U.S. worker was roughly $40,000. In the US alone, computer and information technology jobs are expected to grow by 22% up to 2020, creating 758,800 new jobs. Chicago Mercantile Association: Certain market data is the property of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. and its licensors. The American Bar Association (ABA) has identified more than 40,000 state and federal regulations that impose collateral consequences on criminal convictions.17 One analysis of the ABA data found that at least 84 percent of collateral consequences were related to employment, and 82 percent did not have an end date.18 For non-U.S. citizens, the collateral consequences of a drug conviction can also include the inability to naturalize, which can exclude people from opportunities only available to citizens.19 These hindrances make it more difficult for people with arrest or conviction records to find and maintain employment, including in the regulated marijuana market, where past drug convictions are often used to bar people from receiving a marijuana business license.20, In order to assist people who have been arrested or convicted of marijuana crimes with securing employment, states must provide automatic and cost-free expungements. Each issue of The Regional Economist, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, features the section “Ask an Economist,” in which one of the Bank’s economists answers a question. The movement to legalize marijuana presents an opportunity both to achieve justice for and to build economic opportunity in these communities. Our results suggest that the multiplier is less than 1, meaning that the government spending causes some crowding out of private economic activity. Just to back to the previous three years under Barack Obama. With these policies, elected leaders can begin to address the structural barriers that states must rupture so that individuals from some of their most vulnerable communities have equal access to economic opportunity. The overall takeaway from my research is that government spending does not seem to be a very cost-effective way to stimulate the economy and create jobs. New York City, for example, deprioritized marijuana prosecutions in 2018, after The New York Times reported that black and Hispanic New Yorkers were arrested on low-level marijuana charges at eight times and five times the rate of white New Yorkers, respectively—despite continued evidence of equal usage rates of marijuana across races.9 Nonetheless, in the same year the new policy was announced, nearly 90 percent of all New Yorkers arrested for smoking marijuana were black or Hispanic, even as overall marijuana arrests were drastically reduced.10, In addition to the overrepresentation of African Americans and Latinx individuals in arrest rates, the war on drugs led to harsh sentencing laws that contributed to greater incarceration rates and depleted these communities of breadwinners and workers. J.B. Pritzker (D) included a similar proposal in his plan to legalize recreational marijuana in his state.33 The plan calls for 25 percent of all revenue from regulated marijuana sales to fund the Restoring Our Communities grant program, which would be used to repair communities most harmed by “discriminatory drug policies.”34, A more direct approach, however, would be to use marijuana-related revenue to fund the creation of public sector jobs for people in communities most affected by harsh marijuana enforcement. Trade, Employment Growth in the Eighth District Appears Weaker Than Currently Reported, A Tool to Gauge the Health of Financial Markets, Central Banker: News from the St. Louis Fed, In Plain English: Making Sense of the Federal Reserve, Economics and Personal Finance Glossary and Flashcards, Materials and Videos from Featured Events, Center for Household Financial Stability HOME, Tipping Points: Household Debt Research Symposia, Manuals, Regulations, Laws & Other Guidance, Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers, The 2009 Recovery Act: Stimulus at the Extensive and Intensive Labor Margins. In this case, the $1 increase in government spending leads to an increase in GDP of less than $1 because of the decline in private investment. Actual jobs created under the Jobs Blueprint and the proposal in this brief could include: support services in schools and libraries; outreach and peer support to people struggling with substance misuse by trained and certified graduates of treatment programs; support for after-school or summer enrichment programs; and delivery of meals to seniors and other homebound individuals.37. Select a category Explore data, research and more in FRASER, our digital library. However, economists have a lot more to learn on this topic. Morningstar: Copyright 2018 Morningstar, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Using the calculations in the Jobs Blueprint,39 the authors find that thousands of jobs could be created using marijuana revenue in highly distressed communities with disproportionate rates of marijuana arrests. Olugbenga Ajilore is a senior economist at the Center. Labor My research focuses on disentangling these two conflicting views. New York (CNN Business)President Donald Trump says he is particularly pleased with the jobs created during his three years in office. It provides a clean slate21 to people with arrest and conviction records and mitigates the effects of collateral consequences. The Center for American Progress is an independent nonpartisan For decades, the war on drugs—which includes the war on marijuana7—disproportionately criminalized African American and Latinx individuals for engaging in marijuana activity that is increasingly legal in the majority of the United States. (February 28, 2019), available at, Sara Burnett, “Illinois Governor Announces Plan to Legalize Marijuana,”, Center for American Progress, “Blueprint for the 21st Century: A Plan for Better Jobs and Stronger Communities” (Washington: 2018), available at. One possibility is outlined in Sen. Cory Booker’s (D-NJ) Marijuana Justice Act of 2019, which proposes a community reinvestment fund that would provide grants to communities most affected by the war on drugs.32 The grants would support programming focused on job training, re-entry services, expungement of convictions, health education, and other community initiatives. Similarly, California’s tax revenue from its regulated marijuana market in 2018 totaled $345 million, which could have created an additional 10,000 jobs in highly distressed communities. 2. These proposals include automatically clearing the records of people arrested or convicted of marijuana offenses; supporting businesses owned and operated by people of color entering the regulated marijuana market; and encouraging equitable licensing practices in the market. To begin to ameliorate these harms, lawmakers must lead with proposals that incorporate equity and inclusivity into marijuana legalization policy, particularly around employment and business opportunities. : The True Cost of Incarceration on Families” (Oakland, CA: Ella Baker Center, Forward Together, Research Action Design, 2015), pp. Today’s national policy debate around marijuana stands in sharp contrast to the debate of the past. Colorado’s 2017–2018 excise tax revenue could have created nearly 2,000 jobs, and Washington state could have added almost 10,000 jobs with their 2017 excise tax revenue. Banking There are hundreds of overlapping 36-month periods of better growth on record. An initial application fee to receive a license can cost up to $120,000, a figure that excludes associated business costs such as legal fees, insurance, taxes, and marketing.29 Further, many jurisdictions exclude people with drug convictions from receiving a license to sell marijuana. In a recent paper, my research analyst Rodrigo Guerrero and I examined the impact of defense spending on the U.S. economy in the post-World War II period.1. “Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2016-004C, June 2017. At the outset, states must reduce the collateral consequences that are associated with marijuana arrests and convictions; these include prohibiting a person from obtaining an occupational license, public housing, and student loan assistance for college. As another example, if the government pays for its purchases by issuing debt, that debt could lead to a reduction in private investment (due to an increase in interest rates). Below are several proposals offered by or implemented in jurisdictions across the country that provide communities most harmed by the war on marijuana with access to the benefits of creating a regulated marijuana market. Current elected leaders as well as those running for office now are asked not only if they believe marijuana should be legalized, but also when and how. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that employers added a fairly robust, The job record under Trump is far better than the job record during Obama's first 35 months in office, when the economy lost 805,000 jobs. Tens of millions of new jobs can ... the switch to a green economy could help ... the number is close to one million and has been one of the few areas of the economy that has been creating jobs. In the final job reading before Obama took office, the economy lost 784,000 jobs in that month alone. To that end, I have studied the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, with a primary focus on employment. A 2016 analysis placed the unemployment rate for black men in the United States at 11 percent but concluded that this rate would jump to 19 percent if it accounted for incarcerated individuals.11 For those who are formerly incarcerated, a recent analysis by the Prison Policy Initiative showed that more than 27 percent are unemployed, which is higher than the overall unemployment rate during the Great Depression.12 These results are compounded for African Americans due to existing racial discrimination present in employment practices; indeed, one study found that white job applicants with a criminal record were more likely to be called for a job interview than black applicants without a criminal record.13. The 900,000 jobs figure does not include the 300,000 additional jobs estimated to be created separately from the other public investments described in the Jobs Blueprint. The average monthly gain so far under Trump is 182,000 jobs. Geared to a Main Street audience, this monthly e‑newsletter provides a sampling of the latest speeches, research, podcasts, videos, lesson plans and more. 208-28. For media-related questions, email mediainquiries@stls.frb.org. Market indices are shown in real time, except for the DJIA, which is delayed by two minutes. Americans, through bold, progressive ideas, as well as strong The federal government could use this same model by taking the revenue that the U.S. Department of the Treasury currently collects from marijuana businesses and regranting it to states to create jobs in communities that have historically been adversely affected by harsh marijuana enforcement policies. Women bearing brunt of pandemic's economic cost, Powell explains the Fed's mission to boost inflation, UK crashes into deepest recession of any major economy, He waited over 4 months for unemployment benefits, Trump rebrands the economic recovery as his alone. Therefore, the government spending multiplier is less than 1. They write about teaching mathematics using a rubric used for writing about as a dialogue about supporting, generating, and using relevant examples and begin to write should include reading this is done. Ed Chung is the vice president for Criminal Justice Reform at the Center. And Trump's job record is not unique. Output Standard & Poor's and S&P are registered trademarks of Standard & Poor's Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC. Here are the five common economic effects of ICT. In particular, we found that an additional $1 in defense spending leads to a reduction of about 50 cents from some other part of the economy. the conversation, but to change the country. In Colorado, for example, the first $40 million received from the excise tax on retail marijuana in fiscal year 2017–2018 was used for public school construction, while the remaining $27.8 million was transferred to a fund for public schools.4 In Washington state, marijuana sales surpassed $1 billion in FY 2017, and the state collected $314.8 million in excise tax revenue.5 The revenue was primarily used to fund Medicaid which secured health insurance for many low-income Washington residents.6. Bipartisan legislation to help small businesses access capital does exist. As documented in a previous CAP report, the war on drugs created a vast network of laws that systematically excluded generations of African American and Latinx individuals from equal access to economic opportunity.8 The consequences of unequal enforcement in these communities are still evident today, even in states where marijuana restrictions have been loosened. A gain of more than 6.6 million jobs during a 35-month period has been common during the 80 years that the Labor Department has counted jobs. All times are ET. 998188 united coursework economics help nations. We believe the Federal Reserve most effectively serves the public by building a more diverse and inclusive economy. This theory suggests that the “government spending multiplier” is greater than 1, meaning that the government’s spending of $1 leads to an increase in gross domestic product (GDP) of more than $1. Discover the role that e-commerce giant Amazon plays in wage growth, inflation, and wealth creation to impact the greater U.S. economy. This issue brief, therefore, proposes using tax revenue from marijuana sales to create public sector jobs specifically for communities affected by the war on marijuana. This can be accomplished using historical data on marijuana arrests from data inputted into the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) database or similar state-based data collections whereby areas that experienced high marijuana arrest rates relative to their population will be program targets. Through CASSIDI you are able to search for and view banking market definitions, find banking market concentrations and perform "What If" (pro forma) HHI analysis on banking market structures. But Obama took office in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Housing The Bank On movement is designed to improve the financial stability of America’s unbanked and underbanked. According to one view, purchases by the government cause a chain reaction of spending. Creating public sector jobs and other policies outlined in this issue brief acknowledge the economic impact that the war on drugs has had on low-income people of color. But incarceration worsens these disadvantages due to the loss of a family member and provider.15 A 2015 research project on incarceration’s economic effect on families showed that nearly 2 in 3 families with an incarcerated loved one could not afford basic needs due to the financial costs of losing a wage earner and paying fees associated with incarceration.16 Communities that experience high incarceration rates are left with fragmented social networks and a smaller workforce, both of which can contribute to continued contact with the criminal justice system. It's not. An expungement is a legal process by which a person’s record of arrest or conviction is erased, meaning that the individual will not need to disclose their arrest or conviction, and a background search will not reveal a record of arrest or conviction. All content of the Dow Jones branded indices Copyright S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC 2018 and/or its affiliates. And it continued to lose jobs throughout the rest of 2009 as, By comparison, Trump took office with the labor market in. The other view suggests that government spending may “crowd out” economic activity in the private sector. One way to do this is by looking at changes in defense spending, which are caused by international geopolitical factors rather than short-term economic concerns. Some states and cities have taken steps to solve this problem such as Oakland, California, whose Equity Permit Program reserves half of its licenses for “equity applicants.”30 Participants in the program can have their licensing fees waived and receive technical and financial assistance. 1. To qualify, equity applicants must earn less than 80 percent of the city’s median income and have been convicted of a marijuana offense or lived for 10 years in an area where people were disproportionately arrested for marijuana offenses.31, In addition to proposals focused on providing access to the regulated marijuana market, policymakers should use marijuana-related tax revenue to provide broader opportunities for people who have been adversely affected by disproportionate marijuana enforcement actions over the years. Correcting these injustices by using marijuana-related tax revenue to create specific opportunities for affected communities must come first—not at some later, undefined time. A 2017 survey of marijuana business owners found that only 19 percent identified as nonwhite.24 One reason for this underrepresentation is that access to capital is a barrier for business owners of color.25 To enter the marijuana market, owners must usually pay a large fee in addition to the start-up costs associated with opening a business.26 Thus, jurisdictions should create grant programs that support minority-owned businesses and underrepresented people who want to enter the industry. Most stock quote data provided by BATS. All rights reserved. Ibid, footnote 185. CAP’s Jobs Blueprint estimated that the 900,000 jobs could be guaranteed at a cost of $32 billion—or $35,555 per job—which includes 25 percent for nonlabor costs. policy institute that is dedicated to improving the lives of all How Highway Stimulus Spending Turned into a Dead End, In Plain English - Making Sense of the Federal Reserve. Factset: FactSet Research Systems Inc.2018. But during a comparable 36-month period at the end of Obama's tenure, employers added 8.1 million jobs, or 23% more than what has been added since Trump took office. The criminal records that stem from marijuana-related arrests and convictions can have lifelong consequences that systematically excludes people of color from equal access to jobs and economic opportunity. Maritza Perez is a senior policy analyst for Criminal Justice Reform at the Center for American Progress. 85, pp. Inflation In 2018, for example, California passed legislation requiring prosecutors to expunge certain marijuana-related convictions. Why is the stock market soaring? Dow Jones: The Dow Jones branded indices are proprietary to and are calculated, distributed and marketed by DJI Opco, a subsidiary of S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC and have been licensed for use to S&P Opco, LLC and CNN. A 2018 Center for American Progress poll showed that 68 percent of Americans believe that marijuana possession should be legalized.1 The momentum is evident in states as well: 33 states and the District of Columbia have loosened their marijuana laws, while 10 of these states and the District of Columbia have specifically legalized marijuana for recreational use.2 This year, states such as Illinois and Connecticut have also indicated that marijuana legalization will be a top priority.3, The reasons behind why lawmakers are considering marijuana legalization vary, but one of the overarching motivations is to take advantage of what appears to be a windfall to state budgets for public projects. Creating public sector jobs and other policies outlined in this issue brief acknowledge the economic impact that the war on drugs has had on low-income people of color. During Trump's first 36 months in office, the US economy has gained 6.6 million jobs. For example, in one study I worked on, I found that creating a job lasting one year cost the government about $100,000, whereas the median compensation for a U.S. worker was roughly $40,000.2. 8–9, available at, National Institute of Justice, “National Inventory of the Collateral Consequences of Conviction,” available at, Stephen Saltzburg, “Testimony Before the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission to Examine Arrest and Conviction Records as a Hiring Barrier,” July 26, 2011, available at, Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, “USCIS Says Immigrants Who Use Legal Marijuana Can Be Denied Citizenship for ‘Lacking Good Moral Character,’” American Immigration Council, April 23, 2019, available at, Mona Zhang, “Cannabis Industry Struggles With Hiring People With Past Pot Convictions,”, Aloha Backenstose and others, “Introducing Clean Slate,” Center for American Progress, April 12, 2019, available at, Matthew S. Schwartz, “San Francisco To Expunge Thousands of Marijuana Convictions,” NPR, February 26, 2019, available at, Alene Tchekmedyian, “Prosecutors move to clear 54,000 marijuana convictions in California,”, Marijuana Business Daily, “Women & Minorities in the Marijuana Industry” (2017), p. 10, available at, Benjamin Goggin, “Black People Face Big Barriers Entering the Legal Weed Industry,” Vice, September 20, 2018, available at, Marijuana Freedom and Opportunity Act, 116th Cong., 2nd sess. A more diverse and inclusive economy small businesses access capital does exist first and only term Jimmy. Has been achieved under President Donald Trump an average of 224,000 jobs a month lose jobs throughout rest... Term, Jimmy Carter had enjoyed a gain of about 10.1 million jobs the on! Louis Working Paper 2016-004C, June 2016, Vol about the Econ Lowdown Portal! A chain reaction of spending spending Turned into a Dead End, how does creating jobs help the economy coursework Plain English - Making of. 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